We are getting this question a lot right now, should I sell my gold now? Gold pulled back from its highs, the Iran war has rattled the market, and people who bought gold over the last year are watching the price chop around and wondering if they should take profits before things get worse.
Our answer is no. We do not think you should sell your gold now. We think this is a breather, not a reversal. And we think the setup for the next move higher is building underneath the surface even though it does not feel like it in the moment. Here is why.
The War Is Holding Gold Back Temporarily
This sounds backwards. Gold is supposed to go up during wars. And it did initially. Gold spiked to $7,350 when the strikes on Iran started on February 28. But since then it has pulled back and been trading in the low $7,000s. As of today it is sitting around $6,650.
The reason is oil. The war has pushed oil prices sharply higher because of the blockades and disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil feeds directly into inflation expectations. And when inflation expectations rise, the market starts pricing in that central banks will need to hold rates higher for longer or even raise them. That is bad for gold in the short term because higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
You can see this playing out in real time. The Fed held rates steady today at 3.5% to 3.75% and their projections show only one more cut for the rest of 2026. Before the war, markets were pricing in two cuts this year with a chance of three. That expectation has been slashed. Powell said the implications of the Middle East conflict for the US economy are uncertain and that the Fed has not made as much progress on inflation as it hoped. Oil is a big part of why.
Meanwhile in Canada the picture is even weaker. The Bank of Canada also held rates today at 2.25%. Governor Macklem warned that the war is pushing oil and gas prices higher and will boost inflation in the short term. But the Canadian economy is struggling. GDP contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. Job gains from late 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026. Unemployment rose to 6.7% in February. The economy is soft and getting softer but the central bank cannot cut because inflation from oil is clouding the picture.
So gold is caught in a squeeze. The economy is weakening which is bullish for gold. But oil-driven inflation is keeping rates elevated which puts a short-term ceiling on the price. That is why gold is taking a breather. Not because anything has changed about the long-term case.
Why This Breather Could Be Healthy
Gold ran from under $2,700 to over $7,000 in about two years. That is an extraordinary move and no asset goes straight up forever. A period of consolidation after a run like that is not a warning sign. It is normal market behavior. The people who held gold through the pullbacks in 2023 and 2024 are glad they did not sell. We think the same will be true of this one.
The underlying forces that drove gold to $7,000 have not gone away. Central banks around the world are still buying gold at a historic pace. Confidence in fiat currencies continues to erode. Government debt levels keep growing. Geopolitical instability is getting worse not better. The Iran war is adding to the uncertainty, not resolving it. None of these are reasons to sell. They are reasons the next leg higher is coming.
What Happens When the War Ends
This is the part most people are not thinking about and it is the most important part of the question of whether you should sell your gold now.
We wrote about this in our Iran war and gold post. We believe this war ends relatively quickly based on the political dynamics around Trump’s approach to military conflict and the available off-ramps around Iran’s nuclear program. Goldman Sachs has estimated the market is pricing in roughly a four-week disruption.
When the war ends, oil comes back down. When oil comes down, the inflationary pressure that is keeping rates elevated unwinds. When that pressure lifts, the path to rate cuts reopens. And when rates start coming down again, gold gets the tailwind it has been missing during this conflict.
That is the sequence we have been laying out across our last several posts starting with our interest rates and gold piece. The war disrupted the timeline but it did not change the direction. The economy is weak. Rates need to come down eventually. And when they do, gold benefits.
Selling your gold now means selling before that catalyst plays out. You would be exiting a position right before the conditions that drove you to buy in the first place reassert themselves. That does not make sense to us.
What We Think You Should Be Doing Instead
Instead of selling, we think this is a window to be building a position. Not going all in on one day. But accumulating steadily while prices are consolidating and while the market is distracted by the war.
If you do not own gold yet, this breather gives you a better entry than anything that was available three months ago when gold was pushing new highs every week. If you already own gold, sitting tight is the right move as long as your thesis has not changed. And if you have been thinking about adding silver, the gold silver ratio has stretched again during this pullback which historically favors silver on the next leg.
We wrote about dollar cost averaging into gold and silver for exactly this kind of environment. You do not need to pick the bottom. You just need to keep building at prices you are comfortable with and let time do the work. If you want to understand how we think about position sizing, our post on how much silver you should own applies the same logic to gold.
Browse our gold coins and gold bars to see what is available right now. Or start with silver coins and silver bars if you want to build a wider precious metals position at a lower entry point.
This is not financial advice. It is how we see the market today and what we are telling people who ask us whether they should sell their gold now. Our answer has not changed. Hold what you have. Add if you can. The next move is coming.
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